IATA
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Passenger Recovery Accelerates in February.
Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that air travel posted a strong rebound in February 2022 compared to January 2022, as Omicron-related impacts moderated outside of Asia. The war in Ukraine, which began on 24 February, did not have a major impact on traffic levels.
Note: We are returning to year-on-year traffic comparisons, instead of comparisons with the 2019 period, unless otherwise noted. Owing to the low traffic base in 2021, some markets will show very high year-on-year growth rates, even if the size of these markets is still significantly smaller than they were in 2019.
Total traffic in February 2022 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) was up 115.9% compared to February 2021. That is an improvement from January 2022, which was up 83.1% compared to January 2021. Compared to February 2019, however, traffic was down 45.5%.
February 2022 domestic traffic was up 60.7% compared to the year-ago period, building on a 42.6% increase in January 2022 compared to January 2021. There was wide variation in markets tracked by IATA. Domestic traffic in February was 21.8% below the volumes of February 2019.
International RPKs rose 256.8% versus February 2021, improved from a 165.5% year-over-year increase in January 2022 versus the year-earlier period. All regions improved their performance compared to the prior month. February 2022 international RPKs were down 59.6% compared to the same month in 2019.
“The recovery in air travel is gathering steam as governments in many parts of the world lift travel restrictions. States that persist in attempting to lock-out the disease, rather than managing it, as we do with other diseases, risk missing out on the enormous economic and societal benefits that a restoration of international connectivity will bring,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.February 2022 (% year-on-year)World share1RPKASKPLF (%-pt)2PLF (level)3Total Market 100.0%115.9%68.4%15.4%69.8%Africa1.9%60.2%33.1%11.0%64.8%Asia Pacific27.6%42.9%31.9%4.8%62.9%Europe24.9%232.8%136.1%20.9%72.1%Latin America6.5%100.5%75.1%10.0%79.5%Middle East6.5%194.1%80.9%24.9%64.8%North America32.7%134.9%69.1%20.9%74.5%1% of industry RPKs in 2021 2year-on-year change in load factor 3Load Factor Level 
International Passenger MarketsEuropean carriers saw their February traffic rise 380.6% versus February 2021, improved over the 224.3% increase in January 2022 versus the same month in 2021. Capacity rose 174.8%, and load factor climbed 30.3 percentage points to 70.9%.
Asia-Pacific airlines had a 144.4% rise in February traffic compared to February 2021, up somewhat over the 125.8% gain registered in January 2022 versus January 2021. Capacity rose 60.8% and the load factor was up 16.1 percentage points to 47.0%, the lowest among regions.
Middle Eastern airlines’ traffic rose 215.3% in February compared to February 2021, well up compared to the 145.0% increase in January 2022, versus the same month in 2021. February capacity rose 89.5% versus the year-ago period, and load factor climbed 25.8 percentage points to 64.7%.
North American carriers experienced a 236.7% traffic rise in February versus the 2021 period, significantly increased compared to the 149.0% rise in January 2022 over January 2021. Capacity rose 91.7%, and load factor climbed 27.4 percentage points to 63.6%.
Latin American airlines’ February traffic rose 242.7% compared to the same month in 2021, well up over the 155.2% rise in January 2022 compared to January 2021. February capacity rose 146.3% and load factor increased 21.7 percentage points to 77.0%, which was the highest load factor among the regions for the 17th consecutive month.
African airlines had a 69.5% rise in February RPKs versus a year ago, a large improvement compared to the 20.5% year-over-year increase recorded in January 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. February 2022 capacity was up 34.7% and load factor climbed 12.9 percentage points to 63.0%. Domestic Passenger MarketsFebruary 2022 (% year-on-year)World share1
RPKASKPLF (%-pt)2PLF (level)3Domestic62.4%60.7%39.7%9.7%74.3%Australia0.8%36.0%28.9%3.4%64.2%Brazil1.9%32.5%25.9%4.0%80.9%China P.R.17.8%32.8%27.7%2.6%66.9%India2.2%-3.3%-15.4%10.7%85.4%Japan1.1%35.1%74.8%-11.0%37.5%Russian Fed.4.5%9.1%15.2%-4.6%81.7%US25.6%112.5%60.4%19.3%78.7%1% of industry RPKs in 2021 2year-on-year change in load factor 3Load Factor LevelBrazil’s domestic traffic was up 32.5% in February, compared to February 2021, which was a slowdown compared to the 35.5% year-over-year growth recorded in January.
US domestic RPKs rose 112.5% year-on-year in February, an improvement compared to the 98.4% rise in January versus the prior year.
2022 vs 2019
The accelerated growth recorded in February 2022 compared to a year ago, is helping passenger demand catch-up to 2019 levels. Total RPKs in February were down 45.5% compared to February 2019, well ahead of the 49.6% decline recorded in January versus the same month in 2019. The domestic recovery continues to outpace that of international markets.
February 2022 (% ch vs the same month in 2019)World share in1RPKASKPLF (%-pt)2PLF (level)3Total Market 100.0%-45.5%-37.0%-10.8%69.8%International37.6%-59.6%-50.8%-14.2%65.4%Domestic62.4%-21.8%-12.9%-8.4%74.3%
The Bottom Line
“As the long-awaited recovery in air travel accelerates, it is important that our infrastructure providers are prepared for a huge increase in passenger numbers in the coming months. We are already seeing reports of unacceptably long lines at some airports owing to the growing number of travelers. And that is even before the surge of Easter holiday travel in many markets next week. The peak Northern summer travel season will be critical for jobs throughout the travel and tourism value chain. Now is the time to prepare. Governments can help by ensuring that border positions are staffed adequately and that background security checks for new staff are managed as efficiently as possible,” said Walsh.
View the full February 2022 Air Passenger Market Analysis
View the update on the air transport outlook presentation (pdf) -
Supply Chain Disruptions Halve November Air Cargo Growth .
Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air cargo markets showing slower growth in November 2021. Supply chain disruptions and capacity constraints impacted demand, despite economic conditions remaining favorable for the sector.
As comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, unless otherwise noted, all comparisons below are to November 2019 which followed a normal demand pattern.Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs*), was up 3.7% compared to November 2019 (4.2% for international operations). This was significantly lower than the 8.2% growth seen in October 2021 (9.2% for international operations) and in previous months.
Capacity was 7.6% below November 2019 (-7.9% for international operations). This was relatively unchanged from October. Capacity remains constrained with bottlenecks at key hubs.
Economic conditions continue to support air cargo growth, however supply chain disruptions are slowing growth. Several factors should be noted:
Labor shortages, partly due to employees being in quarantine, insufficient storage space at some airports and processing backlogs exacerbated by the year end rush created supply chain disruptions. Several key airports, including New York’s JFK, Los Angeles and Amsterdam Schiphol reported congestion.
Retail sales in the US and China remain strong. In the US retail sales were 23.5% above November 2019 levels. And in China online sales for Singles’ Day were 60.8% above their 2019 levels.
Global goods trade rose 4.6% in October (latest month of data), compared to pre-crisis levels, the best rate of growth since June. Global industrial production was up 2.9% over the same period.
The inventory-to-sales ratio remains low. This is positive for air cargo as manufacturers turn to air cargo to rapidly meet demand.
The recent surge in COVID-19 cases in many advanced economies has created strong demand for PPE shipments, which are usually carried by air.
The November global Supplier Delivery Time Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was at 36.4. While values below 50 are normally favorable for air cargo, in current conditions it points to delivery times lengthening because of supply bottlenecks.
“Air cargo growth was halved in November compared to October because of supply chain disruptions. All economic indicators pointed towards continued strong demand, but the pressures of labor shortages and constraints across the logistics system unexpectedly resulted in lost growth opportunities. Manufacturers, for example, were unable to get vital goods to where they were needed, including PPE. Governments must act quickly to relieve pressure on global supply chains before it permanently dents the shape of the economic recovery from COVID-19,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
To relieve supply chain disruptions in the air cargo industry, IATA is calling on governments to:Ensure that air crew operations are not hindered by COVID-19 restrictions designed for air travelers.
Implement the commitments governments made at the ICAO High Level Conference on COVID-19 to restore international connectivity, including for passenger travel. This will ramp-up vital cargo capacity with “belly” space.
Provide innovative policy incentives to address labor shortages where they exist.
Support the World Health Organization / International Labour Organization Action Group being formed to assure freedom of movement for international transport workers.November 2021 (% chg vs the same month in 2019)World share1CTKACTKCLF (%-pt)2CLF (level)3Total Market100.0%3.7%-7.6%6.1%55.9%Africa1.7%-0.1%-6.9%3.0%43.4%Asia Pacific32.7%1.1%-15.7%10.9%65.4%Europe22.1%0.3%-9.7%6.3%63.1%Latin America2.4%-12.8%-24.4%6.0%44.6%Middle East13.0%3.4%-9.6%7.2%57.2%North America28.1%13.3%5.9%2.9%44.4% 1 % of industry CTKs in 2020 2 Change in load factor vs 2019 3 Load factor level November Regional Performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their international air cargo volumes increase 5.2% in November 2021 compared to the same month in 2019. This was only slightly below the previous month’s 5.9% expansion. International capacity in the region eased slightly in November, down 9.5% compared to 2019. North American carriers posted an 11.4% increase in international cargo volumes in November 2021 compared to November 2019. This was significantly below October’s performance (20.3%). Supply chain congestion at several key US cargo hubs has affected growth. International capacity was down 0.1% compared to November 2019. European carriers saw a 0.3% increase in international cargo volumes in November 2021 compared to the same month in 2019, but this was a significant drop in performance compared to October 2021 (7.1%). European carriers have been affected by supply chain congestion and localized capacity constraints. International capacity was down 9.9% in November 2021 compared to pre-crisis levels and capacity on the key Europe-Asia route was down 7.3% during the same period. Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 3.4% increase in international cargo volumes in November 2021, a significant drop in performance compared to the previous month (9.7%). This was due to a deterioration in traffic on several key routes such as Middle East-Asia, and Middle East-North America. International capacity was down 9.7% compared to November 2019, a small decrease compared to the previous month (8.4%). Latin American carriers reported a decline of 13.6% in international cargo volumes in November compared to the 2019 period. This was the weakest performance of all regions and a significant deterioration from the previous month’s performance (-5.6%). Capacity in November was down 20.1% on pre-crisis levels. African airlines’ saw international cargo volumes increase by 0.8% in November, a significant deterioration from the previous month (9.8%). International capacity was 5.2% lower than pre-crisis levels. View the Air Cargo Market Analysis for November 2021 (pdf)
Notes for Editors:IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising 83% of global air traffic.You can follow us at twitter.com/iata for announcements, policy positions, and other useful industry information.* Please note that as of January 2020 onwards, we have clarified the terminology of the Industry and Regional series from ‘Freight’ to ‘Cargo’, the corresponding metrics being FTK (changed to ‘CTK’), AFTK (changed to ‘ACTK’), and FLF (changed to ‘CLF’), in order to reflect that the series have been consisting of Cargo (Freight plus Mail) rather than Freight only. The data series themselves have not been changed. Explanation of measurement terms:CTK: cargo tonne-kilometers measures actual cargo trafficACTK: available cargo tonne-kilometers measures available total cargo capacityCLF: cargo load factor is % of ACTKs usedIATA statistics cover international and domestic scheduled air cargo for IATA member and non-member airlines.Total cargo traffic market share by region of carriers in terms of CTK is: Asia-Pacific 32.6%, Europe 22.3%, North America 27.8%, Middle East 13.0%, Latin America 2.4%, and Africa 2.0%.COVID-19 media kit.Travel Pass news and media kit. -
IATA Backs European Digital Covid Certificate as Global Standard.
Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) commended the European Commission for its leadership and speed in delivering the EU Digital COVID Certificate (DCC) and urged states to make it their global standard for digital vaccine certificates.
“The DCC was delivered in record time to help facilitate the reopening of EU states to travel. In the absence of a single global standard for digital vaccine certificates, it should serve as a blueprint for other nations looking to implement digital vaccination certificates to help facilitate travel and its associated economic benefits,” said Conrad Clifford, IATA’s Deputy Director General.
The EU DCC meets several key criteria which have been identified as important if a digital vaccination certificate is to be effective:
- Format: the DCC has the flexibility to be used in both paper and digital format
- QR code: The DCC QR code can be included in both digital and paper format. It contains essential information as well as a digital signature to make sure the certificate is authentic.
- Verification and authentication: The European Commission has built a gateway through which the encrypted data used to sign DCCs and required to authenticate certificate signatures can be distributed across the EU. The gateway can be also used to distribute encrypted data of non-EU certificate issuers other issuers. The EU has also developed a specification for machine readable Validation Rules for cross-country travel.
The EU DCC is implemented in the 27 EU Member states and a number of reciprocal agreements have been agreed with other states’ own vaccination certificates, including Switzerland, Turkey, and Ukraine. In the absence of a single global standard for digital vaccination certificates, up to 60 other countries are looking to use the DCC specification for their own certification. The DCC is an excellent model as it is consistent with the latest World Health Organization Guidance and is fully supported by IATA Travel Pass. Another benefit of the DCC is that it enables holders to access non-aviation sites in Europe that require proof of vaccination, such as museums, sporting events and concerts.
IATA wishes to offer its collaboration to EU Commission and any other interested state to further integrate the DCC into airline processes for a secure and seamless passenger experience, such as support for selective disclosure of personal data.
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IATA release | ACI e IATA mapeiam medidas para o reinício do setor de aviação
O Conselho Internacional dos Aeroportos (ACI) e a Associação Internacional de Transporte Aéreo (IATA) pediram aos governos que garantam que quaisquer novas medidas introduzidas para aeroportos e companhias aéreas após a COVID-19 sejam apoiadas por evidências científicas e sejam consistentes em todo o mundo. As entidades defendem que para um reinício e recuperação equilibrada e eficaz será preciso uma colaboração entre os principais participantes do ecossistema global da aviação
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IATA release | Não torne a recuperação lenta mais difícil com as medidas de quarentena
A IATA acaba de divulgar nova análise mostrando que os danos às viagens aéreas devido à covid-19 se estendem a médio prazo, com as viagens de longo curso/ internacionais sendo as mais severamente impactadas. As medidas de quarentena na chegada aos destinos prejudicariam ainda mais a confiança nas viagens aéreas.
NEWS
No: 41
Don’t Make A Slow Recovery More Difficult with
Quarantine Measures
13 May 2020 (Geneva) – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released new
analysis showing that the damage to air travel from COVID-19 extends into the medium-term,
with long-haul / international travel being the most severely impacted. Quarantine measures on
arrival would further damage confidence in air travel. A risk-based layered approach of globally
harmonized biosecurity measures is critical for the restart.
Air travel scenarios
IATA and Tourism Economics modeled two air travel scenarios.
Baseline Scenario
This is contingent on domestic markets opening in Q3, with a much slower phased
opening of international markets. This would limit the air travel recovery, despite most
forecasts pointing toward a strong economic rebound late this year and during 2021.
In 2021 we expect global passenger demand (measured in revenue passenger
kilometers, RPKs) to be 24% below 2019 levels and 32% lower than IATA’s October
2019 Air Passenger forecast for 2021.
We don’t expect 2019 levels to be exceeded until 2023.
As international markets open and economies recover, there will be further growth in air
travel from the 2020 low point. But even by 2025 we would expect global RPKs to be
10% lower than the previous forecast.
Pessimistic Scenario
This is based on a slower opening of economies and relaxation of travel restrictions, with
lockdowns extending into Q3, possibly due to a second wave of the virus. This would
further delay the recovery of air travel.
In this case, global RPKs in 2021 could be 34% lower than 2019 levels and 41% below
our previous forecast for 2021.
“Major stimulus from governments combined with liquidity injections by central banks will boost
the economic recovery once the pandemic is under control. But rebuilding passenger
confidence will take longer. And even then, individual and corporate travelers are likely tocarefully manage travel spend and stay closer to home,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s
Director General and CEO.
Long-Haul Travel Impact will be Longer Lasting
When the recovery begins, it is expected to be led by domestic travel.
An IATA survey of recent air travelers conducted in April 2020 found that 58% are
somewhat or very likely to restrict their initial travel to domestic journeys.
Domestic Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) will only recover to 2019 levels by- International RPKs are only expected to return to 2019 levels in 2024.
“The impacts of the crisis on long-haul travel will be much more severe and of a longer duration
than what is expected in domestic markets. This makes globally agreed and implemented
biosecurity standards for the travel process all the more critical. We have a small window to
avoid the consequences of uncoordinated unilateral measures that marked the post-9.11 period.
We must act fast,” said de Juniac.
Avoid Quarantine Measures
IATA strongly urges governments to find alternatives to maintaining or introducing arrival
quarantine measures as part of post-pandemic travel restrictions. IATA’s April survey of recent
air travelers showed that
86% of travelers were somewhat or very concerned about being quarantined while
traveling, and
69% of recent travelers would not consider travelling if it involved a 14-day quarantine
period.
“Even in the best of circumstances this crisis will cost many jobs and rob the economy of years
of aviation-stimulated growth. To protect aviation’s ability to be a catalyst for the economic
recovery, we must not make that prognosis worse by making travel impracticable with
quarantine measures. We need a solution for safe travel that addresses two challenges. It must
give passengers confidence to travel safely and without undue hassle. And it must give
governments confidence that they are protected from importing the virus. Our proposal is for a
layering of temporary non-quarantine measures until we have a vaccine, immunity passports or
nearly instant COVID-19 testing available at scale,” said de Juniac.
IATA’s proposal for a temporary risk-based layered approach to provide governments with the
confidence to open their border without quarantining arrivals includes:
Preventing travel by those who are symptomatic with temperature screening and other
measures
Addressing the risks of asymptomatic travelers with governments managing a robust
system of health declarations and vigorous contact tracing.
The mutual recognition of agreed measures is critical for the resumption of international travel.
This is a key deliverable of the COVID-19 Aviation Recovery Task Force (CART) of the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
“CART has a very big job to do with little time to waste. It must find an agreement among states
on the measures needed to control COVID-19 as aviation re-starts. And it must build confidence
among governments that borders can be opened to travelers because a layered approach of
measures has been properly implemented globally. IATA and the whole industry support this
critical work,” said de Juniac.
Read remarks of Alexandre de Juniac
View the COVID-19 Outlook for Air Travel in the Next 5 Years presentation-IATA-
For more information, please contact:
Corporate Communications
Tel: +41 22 770 2967
Email: corpcomms@iata.org
Notes for editors:
IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising
82% of global air traffic.
You can follow us at https://twitter.com/iata for announcements, policy positions, and
other useful industry information. - International RPKs are only expected to return to 2019 levels in 2024.
