IATA
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Passenger Traffic Improved in November; Omicron Restrictions Likely to Affect Period Ahead.
Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that the recovery in air travel continued in November 2021, prior to the emergence of Omicron. International demand sustained its steady upward trend as more markets reopened. Domestic traffic, however, weakened, largely owing to strengthened travel restrictions in China.
Because comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, unless otherwise noted all comparisons are to November 2019, which followed a normal demand pattern.
Total demand for air travel in November 2021 (measured in revenue passenger-kilometers or RPKs) was down 47.0% compared to November 2019. This marked an uptick compared to October’s 48.9% contraction from October 2019.
Domestic air travel deteriorated slightly in November after two consecutive monthly improvements. Domestic RPKs fell by 24.9% versus 2019 compared with a 21.3% decline in October. Primarily this was driven by China, where traffic fell 50.9% compared to 2019, after several cities introduced stricter travel restrictions to contain (pre-Omicron) COVID outbreaks.
International passenger demand in November was 60.5% below November 2019, bettering the 64.8% decline recorded in October.
“The recovery in air traffic continued in November. Unfortunately, governments over-reacted to the emergence of the Omicron variant at the close of the month and resorted to the tried-and-failed methods of border closures, excessive testing of travelers and quarantine to slow the spread. Not surprisingly, international ticket sales made in December and early January fell sharply compared to 2019, suggesting a more difficult first quarter than had been expected. If the experience of the last 22 months has shown anything, it is that there is little to no correlation between the introduction of travel restrictions and preventing transmission of the virus across borders. And these measures place a heavy burden on lives and livelihoods. If experience is the best teacher, let us hope that governments pay more attention as we begin the New Year, ” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.November 2021(% chg vs the same month in 2019)World share1RPKASKPLF (%-pt)2PLF (level)3Total Market 100.0%-47.0%-39.7%-9.7%71.3%Africa2.0%-55.1%-48.4%-9.2%61.6%Asia Pacific38.5%-69.8%-58.9%-21.7%59.7%Europe23.8%-39.4%-32.7%-8.3%75.2%Latin America5.6%-27.5%-27.4%-0.1%82.2%Middle East7.4%-52.6%-43.6%-11.6%61.6%North America22.7%-18.8%-15.4%-3.3%78.6%1% of industry RPKs 2Change in load factor vs 2019 3Load Factor Level 
International Passenger MarketsEuropean carriers’ November international traffic declined 43.7% versus November 2019, much improved compared to the 49.4%% decrease in October versus the same month in 2019. Capacity dropped 36.3% and load factor fell 9.7 percentage points to 74.3%.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their November international traffic fall 89.5% compared to November 2019, slightly improved from the 92.0% drop registered in October 2021 versus October 2019. Capacity dropped 80.0% and the load factor was down 37.8 percentage points to 42.2%, the lowest among regions.
Middle Eastern airlines had a 54.4% demand drop in November compared to November 2019, well up compared to the 60.9% decrease in October, versus the same month in 2019. Capacity declined 45.5%, and load factor slipped 11.9 percentage points to 61.3%.
North American carriers experienced a 44.8% traffic drop in November versus the 2019 period, significantly improved over the 56.7% decline in October compared to October 2019. Capacity dropped 35.6%, and load factor fell 11.6 percentage points to 69.6%.
Latin American airlines saw a 47.2% drop in November traffic, compared to the same month in 2019, a marked upturn over the 54.6% decline in October compared to October 2019. November capacity fell 46.6% and load factor dropped 0.9 percentage points to 81.3%, which was the highest load factor among the regions for the 14th consecutive month.
African airlines’ traffic fell 56.8% in November versus two years’ ago, improved over the 59.8% decline in October compared to October 2019. November capacity was down 49.6% and load factor declined 10.1 percentage points to 60.3%.Domestic Passenger MarketsNovember 2021 (% chg vs the same month in 2019)World share1RPKASKPLF (%-pt)2PLF (level)3Domestic54.2%-24.9%-18.3%-6.6%75.6%Australia0.8%-71.6%-57.4%-27.9%55.6%Brazil1.6%-8.5%-8.1%-0.4%82.3%China P.R.19.8%-50.9%-33.2%-22.1%61.1%India2.1%-17.1%-7.1%-9.6%80.2%Japan1.4%-37.5%-23.6%-14.3%64.5%Russian Fed.3.4%17.5%12.6%3.5%83.5%US16.6%-6.0%-5.1%-0.8%81.4%1% of industry RPKs 2Change in load factor vs 2019 3Load Factor LevelAustralia remained at the bottom of the domestic RPK chart for the fifth consecutive month with RPKs 71.6% below 2019, albeit this was improved from a 78.5% decline in October, owing to the reopening of some internal borders.
US domestic traffic was down just 6.0% compared November 2019 – improved from an 11.1% fall in October, thanks in part to strong Thanksgiving holiday traffic.
View the full November Air Passenger Market Analysis
Notes for Editors:IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising 83% of global air traffic. You can follow us at twitter.com/iata for announcements, policy positions, and other useful industry information.Statistics compiled by IATA Economics using direct airline reporting complemented by estimates, including the use of FlightRadar24 data provided under license.All figures are provisional and represent total reporting at time of publication plus estimates for missing data. Historic figures are subject to revision.Domestic RPKs accounted for about 54.3% of the total market. Explanation of measurement terms:RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometers measures actual passenger trafficASK: Available Seat Kilometers measures available passenger capacityPLF: Passenger Load Factor is % of ASKs used.IATA statistics cover international and domestic scheduled air traffic for IATA member and non-member airlines.In 2020, total passenger traffic market shares by region of carriers in terms of RPK were: Asia-Pacific 38.6%, Europe 23.7%, North America 22.7%, Middle East 7.4%, Latin America 5.7%, and Africa 1.9%.COVID-19 media kit.Travel Pass news and media kitFly Net Zero -
Supply Chain Disruptions Halve November Air Cargo Growth .
Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air cargo markets showing slower growth in November 2021. Supply chain disruptions and capacity constraints impacted demand, despite economic conditions remaining favorable for the sector.
As comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, unless otherwise noted, all comparisons below are to November 2019 which followed a normal demand pattern.Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs*), was up 3.7% compared to November 2019 (4.2% for international operations). This was significantly lower than the 8.2% growth seen in October 2021 (9.2% for international operations) and in previous months.
Capacity was 7.6% below November 2019 (-7.9% for international operations). This was relatively unchanged from October. Capacity remains constrained with bottlenecks at key hubs.
Economic conditions continue to support air cargo growth, however supply chain disruptions are slowing growth. Several factors should be noted:
Labor shortages, partly due to employees being in quarantine, insufficient storage space at some airports and processing backlogs exacerbated by the year end rush created supply chain disruptions. Several key airports, including New York’s JFK, Los Angeles and Amsterdam Schiphol reported congestion.
Retail sales in the US and China remain strong. In the US retail sales were 23.5% above November 2019 levels. And in China online sales for Singles’ Day were 60.8% above their 2019 levels.
Global goods trade rose 4.6% in October (latest month of data), compared to pre-crisis levels, the best rate of growth since June. Global industrial production was up 2.9% over the same period.
The inventory-to-sales ratio remains low. This is positive for air cargo as manufacturers turn to air cargo to rapidly meet demand.
The recent surge in COVID-19 cases in many advanced economies has created strong demand for PPE shipments, which are usually carried by air.
The November global Supplier Delivery Time Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was at 36.4. While values below 50 are normally favorable for air cargo, in current conditions it points to delivery times lengthening because of supply bottlenecks.
“Air cargo growth was halved in November compared to October because of supply chain disruptions. All economic indicators pointed towards continued strong demand, but the pressures of labor shortages and constraints across the logistics system unexpectedly resulted in lost growth opportunities. Manufacturers, for example, were unable to get vital goods to where they were needed, including PPE. Governments must act quickly to relieve pressure on global supply chains before it permanently dents the shape of the economic recovery from COVID-19,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
To relieve supply chain disruptions in the air cargo industry, IATA is calling on governments to:Ensure that air crew operations are not hindered by COVID-19 restrictions designed for air travelers.
Implement the commitments governments made at the ICAO High Level Conference on COVID-19 to restore international connectivity, including for passenger travel. This will ramp-up vital cargo capacity with “belly” space.
Provide innovative policy incentives to address labor shortages where they exist.
Support the World Health Organization / International Labour Organization Action Group being formed to assure freedom of movement for international transport workers.November 2021 (% chg vs the same month in 2019)World share1CTKACTKCLF (%-pt)2CLF (level)3Total Market100.0%3.7%-7.6%6.1%55.9%Africa1.7%-0.1%-6.9%3.0%43.4%Asia Pacific32.7%1.1%-15.7%10.9%65.4%Europe22.1%0.3%-9.7%6.3%63.1%Latin America2.4%-12.8%-24.4%6.0%44.6%Middle East13.0%3.4%-9.6%7.2%57.2%North America28.1%13.3%5.9%2.9%44.4% 1 % of industry CTKs in 2020 2 Change in load factor vs 2019 3 Load factor level November Regional Performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their international air cargo volumes increase 5.2% in November 2021 compared to the same month in 2019. This was only slightly below the previous month’s 5.9% expansion. International capacity in the region eased slightly in November, down 9.5% compared to 2019. North American carriers posted an 11.4% increase in international cargo volumes in November 2021 compared to November 2019. This was significantly below October’s performance (20.3%). Supply chain congestion at several key US cargo hubs has affected growth. International capacity was down 0.1% compared to November 2019. European carriers saw a 0.3% increase in international cargo volumes in November 2021 compared to the same month in 2019, but this was a significant drop in performance compared to October 2021 (7.1%). European carriers have been affected by supply chain congestion and localized capacity constraints. International capacity was down 9.9% in November 2021 compared to pre-crisis levels and capacity on the key Europe-Asia route was down 7.3% during the same period. Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 3.4% increase in international cargo volumes in November 2021, a significant drop in performance compared to the previous month (9.7%). This was due to a deterioration in traffic on several key routes such as Middle East-Asia, and Middle East-North America. International capacity was down 9.7% compared to November 2019, a small decrease compared to the previous month (8.4%). Latin American carriers reported a decline of 13.6% in international cargo volumes in November compared to the 2019 period. This was the weakest performance of all regions and a significant deterioration from the previous month’s performance (-5.6%). Capacity in November was down 20.1% on pre-crisis levels. African airlines’ saw international cargo volumes increase by 0.8% in November, a significant deterioration from the previous month (9.8%). International capacity was 5.2% lower than pre-crisis levels. View the Air Cargo Market Analysis for November 2021 (pdf)
Notes for Editors:IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising 83% of global air traffic.You can follow us at twitter.com/iata for announcements, policy positions, and other useful industry information.* Please note that as of January 2020 onwards, we have clarified the terminology of the Industry and Regional series from ‘Freight’ to ‘Cargo’, the corresponding metrics being FTK (changed to ‘CTK’), AFTK (changed to ‘ACTK’), and FLF (changed to ‘CLF’), in order to reflect that the series have been consisting of Cargo (Freight plus Mail) rather than Freight only. The data series themselves have not been changed. Explanation of measurement terms:CTK: cargo tonne-kilometers measures actual cargo trafficACTK: available cargo tonne-kilometers measures available total cargo capacityCLF: cargo load factor is % of ACTKs usedIATA statistics cover international and domestic scheduled air cargo for IATA member and non-member airlines.Total cargo traffic market share by region of carriers in terms of CTK is: Asia-Pacific 32.6%, Europe 22.3%, North America 27.8%, Middle East 13.0%, Latin America 2.4%, and Africa 2.0%.COVID-19 media kit.Travel Pass news and media kit. -
Government Response to Omicron Threatens Emerging Recovery.
Geneva) – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that the recovery in air travel continued in October 2021 with broad-based improvements in both domestic and international markets. It also warned that the imposition of travel bans by governments, against the advice of the World Health Organization (WHO), could threaten the sector’s recovery.
Because comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, unless otherwise noted all comparisons are to October 2019, which followed a normal demand pattern. Total demand for air travel in October 2021 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) was down 49.4% compared to October 2019. This was improved over the 53.3% fall recorded in September 2021, compared to two years earlier.
Domestic markets were down 21.6% compared to October 2019, bettering the 24.2% decline recorded in September versus September 2019.
International passenger demand in October was 65.5% below October 2019, compared to a 69.0% decline for September versus the 2019 period, with all regions showing improvement.
“October’s traffic performance reinforces that people will travel when they are permitted to. Unfortunately, government responses to the emergence of the Omicron variant are putting at risk the global connectivity it has taken so long to rebuild,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. .October 2021(% chg vs the same month in 2019)World share1RPKASKPLF (%-pt)2PLF (level)3Total Market 100.0%-49.4%-41.2%-11.5%70.6%Africa1.9%-60.1%-50.0%-14.2%55.8%Asia Pacific38.6%-66.4%-56.5%-18.6%62.9%Europe23.7%-45.3%-36.6%-11.8%74.1%Latin America5.7%-33.6%-33.0%-0.7%80.9%Middle East7.4%-59.0%-47.8%-15.7%57.7%North America22.7%-26.3%-19.7%-6.8%76.9%1% of industry RPKs in 2020 2Change in load factor vs 2019 3Load Factor Level International Passenger MarketsEuropean carriers’ October international traffic declined 50.6% versus October 2019, much improved over the 56.5% drop in September compared to September 2019. Capacity dropped 41.3% and load factor fell 13.7 percentage points to 72.5%.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their October international traffic fall 92.8% compared to October 2019, fractionally improved over the 93.1% decline recorded for September 2021 compared to two years ago. Capacity dropped 83.8% and the load factor was down 44.0 percentage points to 35.7%, the lowest among regions by far.
Middle Eastern airlines had a 60.3% demand drop in October compared to October 2019, a huge jump over the 67.1% traffic drop recorded in September against September 2019. Capacity declined 49.1%, and load factor slipped 16.1 percentage points to 57.5%.
North American carriers experienced a 57.0% traffic drop in October versus the 2019 period, improved from a 61.4% decline in September 2021 compared to the same month in 2019. Capacity dropped 43.2%, and load factor fell 20.0 percentage points to 62.4%.
Latin American airlines saw a 55.1% drop in October traffic, compared to the same month in 2019. In September, traffic was down 61.4% compared to two years ago. October capacity fell 52.5% and load factor dropped 4.3 percentage points to 76.9%, which was the highest load factor among the regions for the 13th consecutive month.
African airlines’ traffic fell 60.2% in October versus two years’ ago. Traffic in September was down 62.1% over the corresponding 2019 period. October capacity was down 49.0% and load factor declined 15.2 percentage points to 54.1%.Domestic Passenger Markets October 2021 (% chg vs the same month in 2019)World share1RPKASKPLF (%-pt)2PLF (level)3Domestic54.2%-21.6%-14.6%-6.9%76.7%Australia0.7%-81.0%-70.6%-29.6%54.1%Brazil1.6%-16.3%-16.6%0.3%84.3%China P.R.19.9%-25.7%-9.7%-15.1%70.3%India2.1%-27.0%-21.0%-6.4%77.3%Japan1.4%-49.3%-29.3%-21.9%55.7%Russian Fed.3.4%24.0%23.7%0.2%84.9%US16.6%-10.5%-7.3%-2.9%81.8% 1% of industry RPKs in 2020 2Change in load factor vs 2019 3Load Factor Level India’s domestic market saw a 27.0% decline in October demand compared to October 2019 – greatly improved from a 40.5% fall in September following the easing of some control measures.
Russia’s October domestic traffic was up 24% compared to October 2019, which was deceleration from the 29.3% growth recorded in September 2021 over the two-year ago period, attributable to a strong wave of COVID-19 and the start of the winter travel season.The Bottom Line
“The lifting of the US restrictions on travel from some 33 countries last month raised hopes that a surge in pent-up travel demand would buoy traffic over the coming Northern Hemisphere winter. But the emergence of the Omicron variant panicked many governments into once again restricting or entirely removing the freedom to travel—even though WHO clearly advised that ‘blanket travel bans will not prevent the international spread, and they place a heavy burden on lives and livelihoods.’ The logic of the WHO advice was evident within days of Omicron’s identification in South Africa, with its presence already confirmed in all continents. The ill-advised travel bans are as ineffective as closing the barn door after the horse has bolted,” said Walsh.Last month, IATA released a Blueprint to help guide governments in safely re-opening their borders with data-driven decision-making. Specifically, IATA urged governments to focus on three key areas:
- Simplified health protocols
- Digital solutions to process health credentials
- COVID-19 measures proportionate to risk levels with a continuous review process
“Additionally, governments must address the terrible disparity in vaccination rates that has seen the developed world offering boosters at a time when less than 10% of the African continent is fully vaccinated,” said Walsh.
View the full October Air Passenger Market Analysis
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Frustration with Travel Restrictions Grows.
Boston – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that air travelers are increasingly frustrated with the COVID-19 travel restrictions. A survey commissioned by IATA of 4,700 respondents in 11 markets in September demonstrated confidence that the risks of COVID-19 can be effectively managed and that the freedom to travel should be restored.
- 67% of respondents felt that most country borders should be opened now, up 12 percentage-points from the June 2021 survey.
- 64% of respondents felt that border closures are unnecessary and have not been effective in containing the virus (up 11 percentage points from June 2021).
- 73% responded that their quality of life is suffering as a result of COVID-19 travel restrictions (up 6 percentage points from June 2021).
“People are increasingly frustrated with the COVID-19 travel restrictions and even more have seen their quality of life suffer as a result. They don’t see the necessity of travel restrictions to control the virus. And they have missed too many family moments, personal development opportunities and business priorities. In short, they miss the freedom of flying and want it restored. The message they are sending to governments is: COVID-19 is not going to disappear, so we must establish a way to manage its risks while living and traveling normally,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Support grows for testing or vaccination to replace quarantine
The biggest deterrent to air travel continues to be quarantine measures. 84% of respondents indicated that they will not travel if there is a chance of quarantine at their destination. A growing proportion of respondents support the removal of quarantine if:- A person has tested negative for COVID-19 (73% in September compared to 67% in June)
- A person has been vaccinated (71% in September compared to 68% in June).
With the vaccination rates globally increasing, 80% of respondents agree that vaccinated people should be able to travel freely by air. However, there were strong views against making vaccination a condition for air travel. About two-thirds felt it is morally wrong to restrict travel only to those who have been vaccinated. Over 80% of respondents believe that testing before air travel should be an alternative for people without access to vaccination.
While 85% are willing to be tested if required in the travel process, several issues remain:- 75% of respondents indicated that the cost of testing is a significant barrier to travel
- 80% believe that governments should bear the cost of testing
- 77% see the inconvenience of testing as a barrier to travel
“There is a message here for governments. People are willing to be tested to travel. But they don’t like the cost or the inconvenience. Both can be addressed by governments. The reliability of rapid antigen tests is recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO). Broader acceptance of antigen testing by governments would reduce inconvenience and cost—costs that the WHO’s International Health Regulations stipulate should be borne by governments. It is also clear that while people accept testing and other measures such as mask-wearing as necessary, they want to return to more normal ways of travel when it is safe to do so,” said Walsh.
High confidence with travel experience, struggling with COVID-19 rules
Among those who have traveled since June 2020, 86% felt safe on board the flight owing to the COVID-19 measures.- 87% believed protective measures are well implemented
- 88% felt airline personnel are doing a good job in enforcing COVID-19 rules
There is also strong support for wearing masks, with 87% of respondents agreeing that doing so will prevent the spread of COVID-19.
With more markets starting to open to travel, an area that needs to be addressed is the COVID-related travel rules and requirements.- 73% of those who have traveled since June 2020 found it challenging to understand what rules applied for a trip (up from 70% in June)
- 73% felt the COVID-19 paperwork was challenging to arrange (also up from 70% in June).
“People want to travel. 86% expect to be traveling within six months of the crisis ending. With COVID-19 becoming endemic, vaccines being widely available and therapeutics improving rapidly, we are quickly approaching that point in time. People also tell us that they are confident to travel. But what those who have traveled are telling us is that the rules are too complex and the paperwork too onerous. To secure the recovery governments need to simplify processes, restore the freedom to travel and adopt digital solutions to issue and manage travel health credentials,” said Walsh.
View the Air Travel Response to COVID-19 presentation -
Net-Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050.
Boston – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) 77th Annual General Meeting approved a resolution for the global air transport industry to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This commitment will align with the Paris Agreement goal for global warming not to exceed 1.5°C.
“The world’s airlines have taken a momentous decision to ensure that flying is sustainable. The post-COVID-19 re-connect will be on a clear path towards net zero. That will ensure the freedom of future generations to sustainably explore, learn, trade, build markets, appreciate cultures and connect with people the world over. With the collective efforts of the entire value chain and supportive government policies, aviation will achieve net zero emissions by 2050,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Achieving net zero emissions will be a huge challenge. The aviation industry must progressively reduce its emissions while accommodating the growing demand of a world that is eager to fly. To be able to serve the needs of the ten billion people expected to fly in 2050, at least 1.8 gigatons of carbon must be abated in that year. Moreover, the net zero commitment implies that a cumulative total of 21.2 gigatons of carbon will be abated between now and 2050.
A key immediate enabler is the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). This will stabilize international emissions at 2019 levels in the short-to-medium term. Support for this was reaffirmed in today’s resolution.
Industry-wide Collective Efforts:
The path from stabilizing emissions to emissions reductions will require a collective effort. All industry stakeholders, including governments must each individually take responsibility to address the environmental impact of their policies, products, and activities. And they must work together to deliver sustainable connectivity and ultimately break aviation’s dependance on fossil fuels.
“Achieving sustainable global connectivity cannot be accomplished on the backs of airlines alone. All parts of the aviation industry must work together within a supportive government policy framework to deliver the massive changes that are needed, including an energy transition. That is no different than what we are seeing in other industries. Road transport sustainability efforts, for example, are not being advanced by drivers building electric vehicles. Governments are providing policies and financial incentives for infrastructure providers, manufacturers and car owners to be able to collectively make the changes needed for a sustainable future. The same should apply to aviation,” said Walsh.
The Plan
The strategy is to abate as much CO2 as possible from in-sector solutions such as sustainable aviation fuels, new aircraft technology, more efficient operations and infrastructure, and the development of new zero-emissions energy sources such as electric and hydrogen power. Any emissions that cannot be eliminated at source will be eliminated through out-of-sector options such as carbon capture and storage and credible offsetting schemes.
“We have a plan. The scale of the industry in 2050 will require the mitigation of 1.8 gigatons of carbon. A potential scenario is that 65% of this will be abated through sustainable aviation fuels. We would expect new propulsion technology, such as hydrogen, to take care of another 13%. And efficiency improvements will account for a further 3%. The remainder could be dealt with through carbon capture and storage (11%) and offsets (8%). The actual split, and the trajectory to get there, will depend on what solutions are the most cost-effective at any particular time. Whatever the ultimate path to net zero will be, it is absolutely true that the only way to get there will be with the value chain and governments playing their role,” said Walsh.
The resolution demands that all industry stakeholders commit to addressing the environmental impact of their policies, products, and activities with concrete actions and clear timelines, including:- Fuel-producing companies bringing large scale, cost-competitive sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) to the market.
- Governments and air navigation service providers (ANSPs) eliminating inefficiencies in air traffic management and airspace infrastructure.
- Aircraft and engine manufacturers producing radically more efficient airframe and propulsion technologies; and
- Airport operators providing the needed infrastructure to supply SAF, at cost, and in a cost-effective manner.
The Role of Governments
The energy transition needed to achieve net zero must be supported by a holistic government policy framework focused on realizing cost-effective solutions. This is particularly true in the area of SAF. Technology exists, but production incentives are needed to increase supply and lower costs.
The resolution calls on governments through ICAO to agree a long-term goal equivalent to the industry’s net zero by 2050 commitment. In line with the longstanding approach to managing aviation’s climate change impact, the resolution also called for governments to support CORSIA, coordinate policy measures and avoid a patchwork of regional, national, or local measures.
“Governments must be active partners in achieving net zero by 2050. As with all other successful energy transitions, government policies have set the course and blazed a trail towards success. The costs and investment risks are too high otherwise. The focus must be on reducing carbon. Limiting flying with retrograde and punitive taxes would stifle investment and could limit flying to the wealthy. And we have never seen an environment tax actually fund carbon-reducing activities. Incentives are the proven way forward. They solve the problem, create jobs and grow prosperity,” said Walsh.
Milestones
The combination of measures needed to achieve net zero emissions for aviation by 2050 will evolve over the course of the commitment based on the most cost-efficient technology available at any particular point in time. A base case scenario as follows is the current focus:- 2025: With appropriate government policy support, SAF production is expected to reach 7.9 billion liters (2% of total fuel requirement)
- 2030: SAF production is 23 billion liters (5.2% of total fuel requirement). ANSPs have fully implemented the ICAO Aviation System Block Upgrades and regional programs such as the Single European Sky
- 2035: SAF production is 91 billion liters (17% of total fuel requirement). Electric and/or hydrogen aircraft for the regional market (50-100 seats, 30-90 min flights) become available
- 2040: SAF production is 229 billion liters (39% of total fuel requirement). Hydrogen aircraft for the short-haul market (100-150 seats, 45-120 min flights) become available.
- 2045: SAF production is 346 billion liters (54% of total fuel requirement).
- 2050: SAF production hits 449 billion liters (65% of total fuel requirement).
“SAF will fuel the majority of aviation’s global emissions mitigation in 2050. The recently announced US Grand challenge to increase the supply of SAF to 11 billion liters (3 billion gallons) by 2030 is a great example of the kinds of policies that will drive aviation sustainability. Similarly, the announcements from several big energy suppliers that they intend to produce billions of extra liters of SAF in the near term are welcome. But we cannot tolerate announcements with no follow-up. To be meaningful, fuel suppliers must be accountable for delivering SAF at cost competitive prices.
“The way forward for all means of carbon mitigation will be scrutinized. We will match commitments to achievements in reporting that makes it clear how we are progressing. Engaging with travelers, environmental NGOs and governments based on transparent reporting will ensure that our flightpath to net zero is fully understood,” said Walsh.
Ambition
“There will be those who say that we face impossible numbers and technical challenges. Aviation has a history of realizing what was thought to be impossible—and doing so quickly. From the first commercial flight to the first commercial jet was about 35 years. And twenty years on we had the first jumbo jet. Sustainability is the challenge of our generation. And today we are launching a transition that is challenging. But in 30 years it is also within reach of human ingenuity, provided governments and the whole industry work together and hold each other accountable for delivery,” said Walsh.
Read the Resolution on the Industry’s Commitment to Reach Net Zero Emissions by 2050
