4 March 2020 (Geneva) – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global
passenger traffic data for January 2020 showing that demand (measured in total revenue
passenger kilometers or RPKs) climbed 2.4% compared to January 2019. This was down from
4.6% year-over-year growth for the prior month and is the lowest monthly increase since April
2010, at the time of the volcanic ash cloud crisis in Europe that led to massive airspace closures
and flight cancellations. January capacity (available seat kilometers or ASKs) increased by
1.7%. Load factor climbed 0.6 percentage point to 80.3%.
“January was just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the traffic impacts we are seeing owing to the
COVID-19 outbreak, given that major travel restrictions in China did not begin until 23 January.
Nevertheless, it was still enough to cause our slowest traffic growth in nearly a decade,” said
Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

International Passenger Markets

January international passenger demand rose 2.5% compared to January 2019, down from
3.7% growth the previous month. With the exception of Latin America, all regions recorded
increases, led by airlines in Africa and the Middle East that saw minimal impact from the
COVID-19 outbreak in January. Capacity climbed 0.9%, and load factor rose 1.2 percentage
points to 81.1%.
Asia-Pacific airlines’ January traffic climbed 2.5% compared to the year-ago period,
which was the slowest outcome since early 2013 and a decline from the 3.9% increase
in December. Softer GDP growth in several of the region’s key economies was
compounded by COVID-19 impacts on the international China market. Capacity rose
3.0% and load factor slid 0.4 percentage point to 81.6%.
European carriers saw January demand climb just 1.6% year-to-year, down from 2.7%
in December. Results were impacted by slumping GDP growth in leading economies
during the 2019 fourth quarter plus flight cancellations related to COVID-19 in late
January. Capacity fell 1.0%, and load factor lifted 2.1 percentage points to 82.7%.
Middle Eastern airlines posted a 5.4% traffic increase in January, the fourth
consecutive month of solid demand growth, reflecting strong performance from larger
Europe-Middle East and Middle East-Asia routes, which were not significantly impacted
by route cancellations related to COVID-19 at that time. Capacity increased just 0.5%,
with load factor jumping 3.6 percentage points to 78.3%.
North American carriers’ international demand rose 2.9% compared to January a year
ago, which represented a slowdown from the 5.2% growth recorded in December,
although there were no significant flight cancellations to Asia in January. Capacity
climbed 1.6%, and load factor grew by 1.0 percentage point to 81.7%.
Latin American airlines experienced a 3.7% demand drop in January compared to the
same month last year, which was a further deterioration compared to a 1.3% decline in
December. Traffic for Latin American carriers has now been particularly weak for four
consecutive months, reflecting continued social unrest and economic difficulties in a
number of countries in the region unrelated to COVID-19. Capacity fell 4.0% and load
factor edged up 0.2 percentage point to 82.7%.

African airlines’ traffic climbed 5.3% in January, up slightly from 5.1% growth in
December. Capacity rose 5.7%, however, and load factor slipped 0.3 percentage point
to 70.5%.
Domestic Passenger Markets
Demand for domestic travel climbed 2.3% in January compared to January 2019, as strong
growth in the US helped mitigate the impact from a steep decline in China’s domestic traffic.
Capacity rose 3.0% and load factor dipped 0.5 percentage point to 78.9%.

Chinese airlines’ domestic traffic fell 6.8% in January, reflecting the impact of flight
cancellations and travel restrictions related to COVID-19. China’s Ministry of Transport
reported an 80% annual fall in volumes in late January and early February. Capacity
slipped 0.2% and passenger load factor plunged 5.4 percentage points to 76.7%.
US airlines saw domestic traffic climb 7.5% in January. Although this was down from
10.1% growth in December, it represented another strong month of demand growth
reflecting supportive business confidence and domestic economic outcomes at the time.
Capacity rose 4.9% and load factor climbed 1.9 percentage points to 81.1%.
The Bottom Line
“The COVID-19 outbreak is a global crisis that is testing the resilience not only of the airline
industry but of the global economy. Airlines are experiencing double-digit declines in demand,
and on many routes traffic has collapsed. Aircraft are being parked and employees are being
asked to take unpaid leave. In this emergency, governments need to consider the maintenance

of air transport links in their response. Suspension of the 80/20 slot use rule, and relief on
airport fees at airports where demand has disappeared are two important steps that can help
ensure that airlines are positioned to provide support during the crisis and eventually in the
recovery,” said de Juniac.

For more information, please contact:
Corporate Communications
Tel: +41 22 770 2967
Email: corpcomms@iata.org

Notes for Editors:
 IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising
82% of global air traffic.
 You can follow us at https://twitter.com/iata for announcements, policy positions, and
other useful industry information.
 All figures are provisional and represent total reporting at time of publication plus
estimates for missing data. Historic figures are subject to revision.
 Domestic RPKs accounted for about 36% of the total market. It is most important for
North American airlines as it is about 66% of their operations.
 Explanation of measurement terms:
o RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometers measures actual passenger traffic
o ASK: Available Seat Kilometers measures available passenger capacity
o PLF: Passenger Load Factor is % of ASKs used.
 IATA statistics cover international and domestic scheduled air traffic for IATA member
and non-member airlines.
 Total passenger traffic market shares by region of carriers in terms of RPK are: Asia-
Pacific 34.7%, Europe 26.8%, North America 22.2%, Middle East 9.0%, Latin America
5.1%, and Africa 2.1%.

IATA Updates COVID-19 Financial Impacts

-Relief Measures Needed-

5 March 2020 (Singapore) The International Air Transport Association (IATA) updated its
analysis of the financial impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) public health emergency on
the global air transport industry. IATA now sees 2020 global revenue losses for the passenger
business of between $63 billion (in a scenario where COVID-19 is contained in current markets
with over 100 cases as of 2 March) and $113 billion (in a scenario with a broader spreading of
COVID-19). No estimates are yet available for the impact on cargo operations.
IATA’s previous analysis (issued on 20 February 2020) put lost revenues at $29.3 billion based
on a scenario that would see the impact of COVID-19 largely confined to markets associated
with China. Since that time, the virus has spread to over 80 countries and forward bookings
have been severely impacted on routes beyond China.
Financial markets have reacted strongly. Airline share prices have fallen nearly 25% since the
outbreak began, some 21 percentage points greater than the decline that occurred at a similar
point during the SARS crisis of 2003. To a large extent, this fall already prices in a shock to
industry revenues much greater than our previous analysis.
To take into account the evolving situation with COVID-19, IATA estimated the potential impact
on passenger revenues based on two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Limited Spread
This scenario includes markets with more than 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases (as of 2 March)
experiencing a sharp downturn followed by a V-shaped recovery profile. It also estimates falls in
consumer confidence in other markets (North America, Asia Pacific and Europe).
The markets accounted for in this scenario and their anticipated fall in passenger numbers, due
to COVID-19, as are as follows: China (-23%), Japan (-12%), Singapore (-10%), South Korea (-
14%), Italy (-24%), France (-10%), Germany (-10%), and Iran (-16%). Additionally, Asia
(excluding China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea) would be expected to see an 11% fall in
demand. Europe (excluding Italy, France and Germany) would see a 7% fall in demand and
Middle East (excluding Iran) would see a 7% fall in demand.
Globally, this fall in demand translates to an 11% worldwide passenger revenue loss equal to
$63 billion. China would account for some $22 billion of this total. Markets associated with Asia
(including China) would account for $47 billion of this total.

Scenario 2: Extensive Spread
This scenario applies a similar methodology but to all markets that currently have 10 or more
confirmed COVID-19 cases (as of 2 March). The outcome is a 19% loss in worldwide passenger
revenues, which equates to $113 billion. Financially, that would be on a scale equivalent to what
the industry experienced in the Global Financial Crisis.

Africa and Latin America/Caribbean regions are not explicitly included in this market-based
analysis, because there are currently no countries in either region with at least 10 COVID-19
cases.
Mitigation
Oil prices have fallen significantly (-$13/barrel Brent) since the beginning of the year. This could
cut costs up to $28 billion on the 2020 fuel bill (on top of those savings which would be achieved
as a result of reduced operations) which would provide some relief but would not significantly
cushion the devastating impact that COVID-19 is having on demand. And it should be noted that
hedging practices will postpone this impact for many airlines.
Impact
“The turn of events as a result of COVID-19 is almost without precedent. In little over two
months, the industry’s prospects in much of the world have taken a dramatic turn for the worse.
It is unclear how the virus will develop, but whether we see the impact contained to a few

markets and a $63 billion revenue loss, or a broader impact leading to a $113 billion loss of
revenue, this is a crisis.
“Many airlines are cutting capacity and taking emergency measures to reduce costs.
Governments must take note. Airlines are doing their best to stay afloat as they perform the vital
task of linking the world’s economies. As governments look to stimulus measures, the airline
industry will need consideration for relief on taxes, charges and slot allocation. These are
extraordinary times,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

• IATA –

For more information, please contact:
Corporate Communications
Tel: +41 22 770 2967
Email: corpcomms@iata.org
Notes for Editors:
 IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising
82% of global air traffic.
 You can follow us at twitter.com/iata for announcements, policy positions, and other
useful industry information.

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