COVID-19 Hits January Passenger Demand

4 March 2020 (Geneva) – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global
passenger traffic data for January 2020 showing that demand (measured in total revenue
passenger kilometers or RPKs) climbed 2.4% compared to January 2019. This was down from
4.6% year-over-year growth for the prior month and is the lowest monthly increase since April
2010, at the time of the volcanic ash cloud crisis in Europe that led to massive airspace closures
and flight cancellations. January capacity (available seat kilometers or ASKs) increased by
1.7%. Load factor climbed 0.6 percentage point to 80.3%.
“January was just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the traffic impacts we are seeing owing to the
COVID-19 outbreak, given that major travel restrictions in China did not begin until 23 January.
Nevertheless, it was still enough to cause our slowest traffic growth in nearly a decade,” said
Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

International Passenger Markets

January international passenger demand rose 2.5% compared to January 2019, down from
3.7% growth the previous month. With the exception of Latin America, all regions recorded
increases, led by airlines in Africa and the Middle East that saw minimal impact from the
COVID-19 outbreak in January. Capacity climbed 0.9%, and load factor rose 1.2 percentage
points to 81.1%.
Asia-Pacific airlines’ January traffic climbed 2.5% compared to the year-ago period,
which was the slowest outcome since early 2013 and a decline from the 3.9% increase
in December. Softer GDP growth in several of the region’s key economies was
compounded by COVID-19 impacts on the international China market. Capacity rose
3.0% and load factor slid 0.4 percentage point to 81.6%.
European carriers saw January demand climb just 1.6% year-to-year, down from 2.7%
in December. Results were impacted by slumping GDP growth in leading economies
during the 2019 fourth quarter plus flight cancellations related to COVID-19 in late
January. Capacity fell 1.0%, and load factor lifted 2.1 percentage points to 82.7%.
Middle Eastern airlines posted a 5.4% traffic increase in January, the fourth
consecutive month of solid demand growth, reflecting strong performance from larger
Europe-Middle East and Middle East-Asia routes, which were not significantly impacted
by route cancellations related to COVID-19 at that time. Capacity increased just 0.5%,
with load factor jumping 3.6 percentage points to 78.3%.
North American carriers’ international demand rose 2.9% compared to January a year
ago, which represented a slowdown from the 5.2% growth recorded in December,
although there were no significant flight cancellations to Asia in January. Capacity
climbed 1.6%, and load factor grew by 1.0 percentage point to 81.7%.
Latin American airlines experienced a 3.7% demand drop in January compared to the
same month last year, which was a further deterioration compared to a 1.3% decline in
December. Traffic for Latin American carriers has now been particularly weak for four
consecutive months, reflecting continued social unrest and economic difficulties in a
number of countries in the region unrelated to COVID-19. Capacity fell 4.0% and load
factor edged up 0.2 percentage point to 82.7%.

African airlines’ traffic climbed 5.3% in January, up slightly from 5.1% growth in
December. Capacity rose 5.7%, however, and load factor slipped 0.3 percentage point
to 70.5%.
Domestic Passenger Markets
Demand for domestic travel climbed 2.3% in January compared to January 2019, as strong
growth in the US helped mitigate the impact from a steep decline in China’s domestic traffic.
Capacity rose 3.0% and load factor dipped 0.5 percentage point to 78.9%.

Chinese airlines’ domestic traffic fell 6.8% in January, reflecting the impact of flight
cancellations and travel restrictions related to COVID-19. China’s Ministry of Transport
reported an 80% annual fall in volumes in late January and early February. Capacity
slipped 0.2% and passenger load factor plunged 5.4 percentage points to 76.7%.
US airlines saw domestic traffic climb 7.5% in January. Although this was down from
10.1% growth in December, it represented another strong month of demand growth
reflecting supportive business confidence and domestic economic outcomes at the time.
Capacity rose 4.9% and load factor climbed 1.9 percentage points to 81.1%.
The Bottom Line
“The COVID-19 outbreak is a global crisis that is testing the resilience not only of the airline
industry but of the global economy. Airlines are experiencing double-digit declines in demand,
and on many routes traffic has collapsed. Aircraft are being parked and employees are being
asked to take unpaid leave. In this emergency, governments need to consider the maintenance

of air transport links in their response. Suspension of the 80/20 slot use rule, and relief on
airport fees at airports where demand has disappeared are two important steps that can help
ensure that airlines are positioned to provide support during the crisis and eventually in the
recovery,” said de Juniac.

For more information, please contact:
Corporate Communications
Tel: +41 22 770 2967
Email: corpcomms@iata.org

Notes for Editors:
 IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising
82% of global air traffic.
 You can follow us at https://twitter.com/iata for announcements, policy positions, and
other useful industry information.
 All figures are provisional and represent total reporting at time of publication plus
estimates for missing data. Historic figures are subject to revision.
 Domestic RPKs accounted for about 36% of the total market. It is most important for
North American airlines as it is about 66% of their operations.
 Explanation of measurement terms:
o RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometers measures actual passenger traffic
o ASK: Available Seat Kilometers measures available passenger capacity
o PLF: Passenger Load Factor is % of ASKs used.
 IATA statistics cover international and domestic scheduled air traffic for IATA member
and non-member airlines.
 Total passenger traffic market shares by region of carriers in terms of RPK are: Asia-
Pacific 34.7%, Europe 26.8%, North America 22.2%, Middle East 9.0%, Latin America
5.1%, and Africa 2.1%.