IATA release | Não torne a recuperação lenta mais difícil com as medidas de quarentena

A IATA acaba de divulgar nova análise mostrando que os danos às viagens aéreas devido à covid-19 se estendem a médio prazo, com as viagens de longo curso/ internacionais sendo as mais severamente impactadas. As medidas de quarentena na chegada aos destinos prejudicariam ainda mais a confiança nas viagens aéreas. 

NEWS
No: 41
Don’t Make A Slow Recovery More Difficult with
Quarantine Measures
13 May 2020 (Geneva) – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released new
analysis showing that the damage to air travel from COVID-19 extends into the medium-term,
with long-haul / international travel being the most severely impacted. Quarantine measures on
arrival would further damage confidence in air travel. A risk-based layered approach of globally
harmonized biosecurity measures is critical for the restart.
Air travel scenarios
IATA and Tourism Economics modeled two air travel scenarios.
Baseline Scenario
 This is contingent on domestic markets opening in Q3, with a much slower phased
opening of international markets. This would limit the air travel recovery, despite most
forecasts pointing toward a strong economic rebound late this year and during 2021.
 In 2021 we expect global passenger demand (measured in revenue passenger
kilometers, RPKs) to be 24% below 2019 levels and 32% lower than IATA’s October
2019 Air Passenger forecast for 2021.
 We don’t expect 2019 levels to be exceeded until 2023.
 As international markets open and economies recover, there will be further growth in air
travel from the 2020 low point. But even by 2025 we would expect global RPKs to be
10% lower than the previous forecast.
Pessimistic Scenario
 This is based on a slower opening of economies and relaxation of travel restrictions, with
lockdowns extending into Q3, possibly due to a second wave of the virus. This would
further delay the recovery of air travel.
 In this case, global RPKs in 2021 could be 34% lower than 2019 levels and 41% below
our previous forecast for 2021.
“Major stimulus from governments combined with liquidity injections by central banks will boost
the economic recovery once the pandemic is under control. But rebuilding passenger
confidence will take longer. And even then, individual and corporate travelers are likely to

carefully manage travel spend and stay closer to home,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s
Director General and CEO.
Long-Haul Travel Impact will be Longer Lasting
When the recovery begins, it is expected to be led by domestic travel.
 An IATA survey of recent air travelers conducted in April 2020 found that 58% are
somewhat or very likely to restrict their initial travel to domestic journeys.
 Domestic Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) will only recover to 2019 levels by

1. International RPKs are only expected to return to 2019 levels in 2024.
   “The impacts of the crisis on long-haul travel will be much more severe and of a longer duration
   than what is expected in domestic markets. This makes globally agreed and implemented
   biosecurity standards for the travel process all the more critical. We have a small window to
   avoid the consequences of uncoordinated unilateral measures that marked the post-9.11 period.
   We must act fast,” said de Juniac.
   Avoid Quarantine Measures
   IATA strongly urges governments to find alternatives to maintaining or introducing arrival
   quarantine measures as part of post-pandemic travel restrictions. IATA’s April survey of recent
   air travelers showed that
    86% of travelers were somewhat or very concerned about being quarantined while
   traveling, and
    69% of recent travelers would not consider travelling if it involved a 14-day quarantine
   period.
   “Even in the best of circumstances this crisis will cost many jobs and rob the economy of years
   of aviation-stimulated growth. To protect aviation’s ability to be a catalyst for the economic
   recovery, we must not make that prognosis worse by making travel impracticable with
   quarantine measures. We need a solution for safe travel that addresses two challenges. It must
   give passengers confidence to travel safely and without undue hassle. And it must give
   governments confidence that they are protected from importing the virus. Our proposal is for a
   layering of temporary non-quarantine measures until we have a vaccine, immunity passports or
   nearly instant COVID-19 testing available at scale,” said de Juniac.
   IATA’s proposal for a temporary risk-based layered approach to provide governments with the
   confidence to open their border without quarantining arrivals includes:

 Preventing travel by those who are symptomatic with temperature screening and other
measures
 Addressing the risks of asymptomatic travelers with governments managing a robust
system of health declarations and vigorous contact tracing.
 

The mutual recognition of agreed measures is critical for the resumption of international travel.
This is a key deliverable of the COVID-19 Aviation Recovery Task Force (CART) of the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
“CART has a very big job to do with little time to waste. It must find an agreement among states
on the measures needed to control COVID-19 as aviation re-starts. And it must build confidence
among governments that borders can be opened to travelers because a layered approach of
measures has been properly implemented globally. IATA and the whole industry support this
critical work,” said de Juniac.
Read remarks of Alexandre de Juniac
View the COVID-19 Outlook for Air Travel in the Next 5 Years presentation 

-IATA-

For more information, please contact:
Corporate Communications
Tel: +41 22 770 2967
Email: corpcomms@iata.org
Notes for editors:
 IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising
82% of global air traffic.
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